The arrest of Damian Green is outrageous. I never advocate the reining in of policemen by elected officals, but it might be time for some guidelines. This just should not happen. The government is either lying or had buggered up its chain of communication (I suspect the latter) and needs to fix it. At least there has been outrage across the spectrum.
However, can we get some proportion. It's important not to start banging on about Zimbabwe at this time, as it makes you look silly.
Doesn't make it OK though - 'not as bad a Mugabe' isn't a defence.
Friday 28 November 2008
Thursday 27 November 2008
At the margin
Last weekend, Martin Johnson said that 'International rugby is all about fine margins' after our depressing loss to South Africa. He is of course right: though there were times when the gap looked a little bigger than that, the reality is that minor changes appear large when played the game is played at that level - small differences matter.
This is hardly news to any economist. The reason demand curves look like they do is because marginal changes to feed through to behaviour overall even if they individually appear to be negligible. Of course this is slightly counterintuitive because no one wants to admit that they might be influenced by 1 or 2% at the margin, but at some point price changes mean behaviour changes, so that margin works somewhere. You would have thought from the coverage of the various economic discussion that people had fogotten this essential fact. Labour has long been guilty of this - I remember Adair Turner's Just Capital which claimed that the difference in incentives didn't change at low increases in income tax - rubbish - and a general heavy handedness on economic policy. Now we're at too: John Redwood may have a point about income tax being a better cut than VAT, but not that 2.5% doesn't matter when goods have been reduced by 10-20% so it won't matter.
I'm not a professional economist; I haven't done this formally for over 10 years, and then hardly to a high level, but I know that we need to stop pretending that the only change that counts is a big bang. Small percentages always matter.
This is hardly news to any economist. The reason demand curves look like they do is because marginal changes to feed through to behaviour overall even if they individually appear to be negligible. Of course this is slightly counterintuitive because no one wants to admit that they might be influenced by 1 or 2% at the margin, but at some point price changes mean behaviour changes, so that margin works somewhere. You would have thought from the coverage of the various economic discussion that people had fogotten this essential fact. Labour has long been guilty of this - I remember Adair Turner's Just Capital which claimed that the difference in incentives didn't change at low increases in income tax - rubbish - and a general heavy handedness on economic policy. Now we're at too: John Redwood may have a point about income tax being a better cut than VAT, but not that 2.5% doesn't matter when goods have been reduced by 10-20% so it won't matter.
I'm not a professional economist; I haven't done this formally for over 10 years, and then hardly to a high level, but I know that we need to stop pretending that the only change that counts is a big bang. Small percentages always matter.
Anthony Stewart Head
A quick hurrah for Anthony Stewart Head, famous now for Little Britain, but initially for coffee adverts that I never saw, and Buffy the Vampire Slayer that I watched endlessly.
It was my sister's birthday yesterday, and having time to kill before lunch with my parents, she (who has also watched Buffy endlessly) bought a Buffy book to read. At lunch (at which I was not there - the perils of working in White City), they spotted the actor in question and my father made the slightly trepidatious approach. I'm reliably informed he was lovely, came over, wished my sister happy birthday, signed the book (with some astonishment that someone would accidentally have it on them), and made a point of coming over again when he left to repeat his best wishes for the day.
He's not stratospherically famous but must get this quite a bit, so I think all credit must be given to him for being lovely about it all.
Such stories should be told.
It was my sister's birthday yesterday, and having time to kill before lunch with my parents, she (who has also watched Buffy endlessly) bought a Buffy book to read. At lunch (at which I was not there - the perils of working in White City), they spotted the actor in question and my father made the slightly trepidatious approach. I'm reliably informed he was lovely, came over, wished my sister happy birthday, signed the book (with some astonishment that someone would accidentally have it on them), and made a point of coming over again when he left to repeat his best wishes for the day.
He's not stratospherically famous but must get this quite a bit, so I think all credit must be given to him for being lovely about it all.
Such stories should be told.
Tuesday 25 November 2008
There are some things money can't buy
This quote is priceless.* I almost want to frame it. It's not that she's entirely wrong, it's the totemic significance of 3 million for Labour and the sudden renunciation of its importance:
Even if unemployment reaches 3 million, that still leaves 90% in secure jobs. Most people will suffer not at all in this recession: on the contrary they will do well
Polly Toynbee, The Guardian 25.11.08
The rest of the article is also bit rubbish. My personal favourite is describing a tax that she admits affects 1.3% of the country as Labour having 'unfurled its old battle banner for social justice.'
Incidentally, Polly's grandfather, A.J., was a wide ranging historian and one of the first Byzantine chairs. He's less fashionable now, but he would have been pleased at the cyclical nature of politics and the significance of his grandaughter acknowledging that 3 million may not have been so bad after all.
*BTW, I've shamelessly stolen someone else's research to find it.
Even if unemployment reaches 3 million, that still leaves 90% in secure jobs. Most people will suffer not at all in this recession: on the contrary they will do well
Polly Toynbee, The Guardian 25.11.08
The rest of the article is also bit rubbish. My personal favourite is describing a tax that she admits affects 1.3% of the country as Labour having 'unfurled its old battle banner for social justice.'
Incidentally, Polly's grandfather, A.J., was a wide ranging historian and one of the first Byzantine chairs. He's less fashionable now, but he would have been pleased at the cyclical nature of politics and the significance of his grandaughter acknowledging that 3 million may not have been so bad after all.
*BTW, I've shamelessly stolen someone else's research to find it.
Saturday 22 November 2008
Gotcha
There has been much hand-wringing about the BNP's membership being leaked, and clearly it's not pleasant to have emails leaked, but but I find it very difficult to care about any rights infringement. After all, I am very happy for people to know my politics - it's presumably only a problem if it's really embarrassing.
Anyway, a spreadsheet to play with is too great a temptation. There can be some difficulty in locating it, but it's easily available here. And the heat map is great, though I think it needs some percentage analysis, I would do this in a table, but getting hold of the relevant census data is all but impossible online - outrageously.
However, at least as fun is the comments you can read on the details, except for the kids who get included because of their nutter parents. Some of these are just a reflection of the oddity of people - I can imagine mine would read oddly - but some you can only reflect BNP members, or sit incongruously with the rest of the BNP policy. Here are some of my favourites:
Anyway, a spreadsheet to play with is too great a temptation. There can be some difficulty in locating it, but it's easily available here. And the heat map is great, though I think it needs some percentage analysis, I would do this in a table, but getting hold of the relevant census data is all but impossible online - outrageously.
However, at least as fun is the comments you can read on the details, except for the kids who get included because of their nutter parents. Some of these are just a reflection of the oddity of people - I can imagine mine would read oddly - but some you can only reflect BNP members, or sit incongruously with the rest of the BNP policy. Here are some of my favourites:
- Hobbies: motocycling, Staffordshire bull terriers
- State registered nurse. Orthopaedic nursing Cert. & Diploma in Nursing. Hobbies: walking, caravanning, cross-stitch & knitting, helping people in need
- Will not be renewing 07 (objects to being told he shouldn't wear a bomber jacket)
- Hobbies: freemasonry, church singing - activist
- Member of the Toastmasters Association
- Active Odinist/member of Pagan organisations. Hobbies: folklore
- member describes himself as a witch: potential embarrassment if active
- Retired antique dealer. Owner: tourist attraction in Canada. Former racing driver (British champion 1958). Hobbies: competition shooting, sword collector. Author.
- Retired historian, teacher & tutor. BA (Hons) History. Hobbies: occasional speaker (nationalist views); writing poetry
And of course there are there are the ones who live abroad. Six live in France, what do they say about foreigners there?
Friday 21 November 2008
The second time as farce
I've deliberately not said much on the Ross / Brand stuff, for obvious reasons, but I find the news that Ross has been replaced by Angus Deayton for the comedy awards hugely amusing. It calls Marx's old adage to mind, though I wouldn't call Deayton's original firing as tragedy; and I'm not commenting on Ross.
Sunday 16 November 2008
A whiter shade of pale
My period of silence since the last post has been in exciting times - US elections, all manner of children trouble, G20 fixing the credit crisis and even a priest punch-up in the holy sepulchre. This is not that uncommon, but it has meant I have had to explain multiple times what the difference is between the Armenian and Greek Orthodox churches (it's Chalcedon, though Wikipedia is out of its depth here).
However, my time has been focused on none of these, but instead on redecorating our flat - more properly, getting other people to do it. My contribution has been limited to choosing paint colours (with spousal supervision). I have learnt:
a) white - terrifyingly - comes in more varieties than I had thought possible
b) when Anna says that our woodwork should be painted white, she doesn't actually mean white, she means off-white, but doesn't say so.
c) handymen are actually as bad as they are portrayed by Flanders and Swann (in lego here)
There's a broader point about the problems of too much choice in some areas and not enough knowledge or skill in others, but I cannot be bothered to make it. I just want my house back in time to host dinner on Wednesday (at the moment, all the common rooms are uninhabitable and the others full of the books I've taken out of the common rooms.
Oh, and the white I chose was this one.
However, my time has been focused on none of these, but instead on redecorating our flat - more properly, getting other people to do it. My contribution has been limited to choosing paint colours (with spousal supervision). I have learnt:
a) white - terrifyingly - comes in more varieties than I had thought possible
b) when Anna says that our woodwork should be painted white, she doesn't actually mean white, she means off-white, but doesn't say so.
c) handymen are actually as bad as they are portrayed by Flanders and Swann (in lego here)
There's a broader point about the problems of too much choice in some areas and not enough knowledge or skill in others, but I cannot be bothered to make it. I just want my house back in time to host dinner on Wednesday (at the moment, all the common rooms are uninhabitable and the others full of the books I've taken out of the common rooms.
Oh, and the white I chose was this one.
Tuesday 4 November 2008
On the bandwagon
I wasn't on the Obama bandwagon early. I'm still not really on it. His foreign policy in particular makes me very jittery: his naive assumption that Iraq can be fixed by 'forg[ing] a new coalition ... one that includes all of Iraq's neighbors.' I just don't think he understands the complexity of the Iranian relationship for example. And getting it wrong and pulling out is worse than getting it wrong and staying in (going in is a different matter). Elsewhere, I think he's too young and he is going to struggle with the almost Messianic expectations in an acute economic downturn.
Nonetheless, the alternative is worse. McCain, though clearly a bona fide all American hero (and I get irritated when his opponents challenge this), is out of his depth on the economics and I cannot abide her.*
So tonight, I'm with the left at a party hoping for an Obama victory and trying to avoid contact with my more right wing American friends. Last time I was up till 4; the time before 7. I'm really hoping this gets done and dusted early - the up all night bandwagon isn't one I fancy jumping with.
* In general, I've never really quite got the orientation right on US politics. I'm a centre-right man and though logically I know this makes me a Democrat, I still instinctively feel Republican - it's tribal thing. So, it's always disappointing when they turn out to be rubbish, even though there is no reason for me to feel this.
Nonetheless, the alternative is worse. McCain, though clearly a bona fide all American hero (and I get irritated when his opponents challenge this), is out of his depth on the economics and I cannot abide her.*
So tonight, I'm with the left at a party hoping for an Obama victory and trying to avoid contact with my more right wing American friends. Last time I was up till 4; the time before 7. I'm really hoping this gets done and dusted early - the up all night bandwagon isn't one I fancy jumping with.
* In general, I've never really quite got the orientation right on US politics. I'm a centre-right man and though logically I know this makes me a Democrat, I still instinctively feel Republican - it's tribal thing. So, it's always disappointing when they turn out to be rubbish, even though there is no reason for me to feel this.
Monday 3 November 2008
Abomination
News that councils have begun to ban Latinisms truly deserves the anathema. I wouldn't go as far as Mary Beard here who describes it as ethnic cleansing, but I'm not far off.
There is a long involved explanation for why it is terrible, but essentially it suggests that people should be assumed to be morons, incapable of looking anything up or reading about anything they don't encounter elsewhere. Now, a lot of people are morons who are incapable of doing any of the above, but we let them vote and pretend their opinions matter, so tough. We can't have it both ways.
In addition, latin really shouldn't get banned just because we have refused to give state school children access to the intellectual heritage of the West. Pick on something else.
There is a long involved explanation for why it is terrible, but essentially it suggests that people should be assumed to be morons, incapable of looking anything up or reading about anything they don't encounter elsewhere. Now, a lot of people are morons who are incapable of doing any of the above, but we let them vote and pretend their opinions matter, so tough. We can't have it both ways.
In addition, latin really shouldn't get banned just because we have refused to give state school children access to the intellectual heritage of the West. Pick on something else.
Saturday 1 November 2008
Bibliography, October 2008
Books bought (7)
B. Bryson, Life and times of the Thunderbolt Kid
F. Stark, Ionia
M. Tully, India in slow motion
A. Powell, At Lady Molly's
A. Powell, Casanova's Chinese restaurant
A. Powell, The kindly ones
Wisden, Cricketers' Almanack 2006
Books read (12)
P. Auster, New York Trilogy
M. Beloff, An Historian in the 20th Century
S. Foehr, Waking up in Nashville
P. Glazebrook, Journey to Kars
Q. Hogg, The left was never right
A. Kenny, A path from Rome
D. Lodge, Changing places
J. Major, More than a game: the story of cricket's early years
A. Powell, A buyer's market
G. Robb, The discovery of France
R. Thaler and C.R. Sunstein, Nudge
M. Younus, Banker to the poor
These little bibliographic excursions are running the risk of getting overlong. I'm just going to highlight a book of the month now and then comment on a couple of others briefly. This time, it's been a pretty high quality month actually, though I didn't really understand Auster and Nudge was overlong.
B. Bryson, Life and times of the Thunderbolt Kid
F. Stark, Ionia
M. Tully, India in slow motion
A. Powell, At Lady Molly's
A. Powell, Casanova's Chinese restaurant
A. Powell, The kindly ones
Wisden, Cricketers' Almanack 2006
Books read (12)
P. Auster, New York Trilogy
M. Beloff, An Historian in the 20th Century
S. Foehr, Waking up in Nashville
P. Glazebrook, Journey to Kars
Q. Hogg, The left was never right
A. Kenny, A path from Rome
D. Lodge, Changing places
J. Major, More than a game: the story of cricket's early years
A. Powell, A buyer's market
G. Robb, The discovery of France
R. Thaler and C.R. Sunstein, Nudge
M. Younus, Banker to the poor
These little bibliographic excursions are running the risk of getting overlong. I'm just going to highlight a book of the month now and then comment on a couple of others briefly. This time, it's been a pretty high quality month actually, though I didn't really understand Auster and Nudge was overlong.
The best though was Robb - stunningly good and an original piece of work. He takes as his subject the local, regional France of the Early modern era and charts its emergence as an at least partially united country over the nineteenth century, driven in large part by technology - obviously the railway, but also critically the bicycle. It's a fascinating glimpse into a recent, yet compellingly alien, past of isolated villages, and a France that clashes with all our conceptions of a centralised monarchy. Required reading for Francophiles - I'm buying it for my dad.
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