A week is a long time in politics (V): reflections on the revolution

In the end, it wasn't the revolution we expected. No Liberal breakthrough; tragically for them, though amusingly for me, the Liberals managed the same number of votes and fewer seats than last time. That was funny. FPTP was revealed in all its glory: hounding out Lembit; expelling Peter Robinson, making an unlikely hero of Margaret Hodge, and - yes - sadly keeping Ed Balls. The swing was all over the place, making the polling look sensible, but luckily so. And we've produced the most exquisite torture for the Liberals we could have devised. A great election; but a terrible result.

I'm hopeful that we (the country) can get something out of this. Secret negotiations with Labour notwithstanding, I think we will have a Lib-Tory coalition by the end of the week; possibly the end of the day. I think that's probably the right answer. Being on the Tory left, I'm pretty happy with that as an outcome, especially if we can swap Osborne for Cable (not that I am particularly pro-Cable, but Osborne is overpromoted and it will mean the sainted one can take some blood and mud). Anything else would be a disaster. I'll reflect on what we get when it happens, but in the meantime, here some more general thoughts on the result. People should remember these next time:

1. If you wanted to keep the Tories out of power, you should have voted Labour. The web and the vox pops are alive with people horrified that they 'voted for change' but that the Liberals seem likely to bring the Tories back. These people should clearly never vote again: the Tories were on course to be the largest party, Clegg had said priority would go to the largest party, then he - er - started talks with the largest party. That's what coalition building is about. If you wanted to push the Labour led coalition, vote Labour.
2. Ironically, but predictably, Liberals aren't very good at decisions. If we get PR, we're in trouble, as the already difficult task of coalition building is going to become nightmarish. For decades the Liberals have been telling us how much better life would be if there was PR and they could hold the balance of power in every election (they tend not to mention the last bit). Now they've got it, and they're complaining about how difficult it is. If, and Menzies Campbell I mean you, it's unacceptable for the Tories to get in then either say so up front, or join the Labour party. This is grown up politics. Decide.
3. There is still a growing unsavoury element. We're rightly pleased that the BNP was sent packing in Barking, but the party as whole is now more popular than the SNP and more than doubled its share of the vote - 12 MPs under PR. Between them, UKIP and the BNP (and they are not the same, but I'm not very fond of them either) would have 5% of the vote, and 32 MPs under PR. This is worrying. And as a aside, I'm fed up with the smug, 'oh but that's democracy' argument in favour of this. It usually comes from people who don't want democracy (and rightly) for the bringing back of hanging, public funding for arts (don't imagine that's well supported), pull back from the EU etc. But suddenly are happy to defend the votes for the racists because voting reform is 'so important.' Rubbish.
4. The voters should remember we're electing a parliament, not a president. I am fed up with Tories bleating on about having not elected the PM; and Blunkett did it this morning. If some tedious modernising 'progressive' wants to make that a prerequisite of the government, then they should. But we elect a parliament, on a constituency basis, and they select their leader who commands confidence. Deal with it; it's a good and proper system.
5. Finally, someone needs to remind Scotland they are a small, poor, country that doesn't have a moral remit for the rest of us. Salmond was on the Radio this morning banging on about how they didn't approve of a coalition of the third and fourth parties (i.e. their ranking in Scotland, they're his words) being in government. Taking his logic, as the SNP are sixth in the UK, they shouldn't form any government, even in Scotland. Absurd. Speaking very slowly, someone should remind them that 90% of people don't live in Scotland, this is a UK parliament, and their aversion for the Tories just isn't very relevant for that because England is different and there are more of us.

So that's my immediate thoughts. A brief coda on where next:

• As I say above, I think we're close. We have to bring the Liberals in, otherwise disaster lies. They must share the pain, and therefore the power. A referendum on voting reform - which I think we'd win - is a price worth paying, but it must be a referendum on a system. The rest is fine.
• Elsewhere, it's time for a radical Tory Scottish policy. I'll sketch this out in more detail later, but we need to offer the Scots a referendum on independence. And we need to do it soon. Done right, it's a win-win: win and there's a Tory majority and either a lower cost (or at least breakeven). But lose, and this is the best bit, we spike the SNP guns and offer a chance for the Tories to be taken seriously north of the border. It's the way forward.
• Anyway, we'll be back to the polls soon, likely in 6 months, almost certainly in 2 years.

It's been fab.